Development of the Risks at Near Earth Orbit (350-2000km) in Outer Space in the last 10 month.

The charts show the daily probability of a conjunction smaller that 10m based on the given relative object dynamics.

The probability is calculated in a day-to-day process from public available TLE’s.

The development shows a total increase from 6% to 7.6% of a conjunction between two objects in low Earth Orbit smaller than 10m in relative distance is mainly coming from the avoidable conjunctions. So the natural growth of risks from space debris without new input was from 5.4% to 5.5% and the new satellites within the last 10 month increased the risk by the factor 2.5 from ~0.7% to ~1.7%.