https:\/\/amostech.com\/TechnicalPapers\/2022\/Poster\/Eder.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nABSTRACT
Understanding the probability and the impact of cascading collisions in earth\u2019s orbit turns out to be one of the more
controversial topics in space sustainability and risk management. A lot of work invested over the past decades and
especially in the last years has led to a better understanding of fragmentation and collision processes [1][2]. The
fragmentations and collisions which took place during that time served as real-life examples to validate or falsify
model approaches, and to refine them. So far, we have not seen cascading collisions leading to what has been
described as the \u201cKessler syndrome\u201d decades ago [3][4]. Similar to climate change, it is not possible to determine
exactly when the tipping point will be reached, but we know we are moving closer to it every day.
Using a systems theory approach, the goal of our research was to enable a perspective which is not meant to be
contrary, but rather complementary to existing astrophysics and astrodynamics approaches which mostly care about
conjunctions and collisions as risks for single objects, their dynamics and interaction with other single-object items.
We show how we can learn from available data and its correlations rather than feeding Monte-Carlo method results
into theoretical models. We show how we can use traffic lane analogies from a system traffic point-of-view rather
than from a moving-object perspective only. We show how understanding impacts of internal and external changes
to orbital shell systems can provide added value for decision-makers that designing better-than-required criteria as
thresholds for space sustainability awards on a per-object basis cannot yield.
We use existing measurement data, collected and assigned to altitude- and time-based systems of space objects, for
analyzing the interactions of space objects and their evolution over time. This leads us to parameters describing the
risk and the potential of cascading collisions. Other than the collision risk obtained by traditional astrophysics and
astrodynamics methods [5][6], this cascading potential does not tell something about single object risks, but says
something about the overall system, about the likelihood an \u201cinfected\u201d object can \u201cinfect\u201d further objects. Such
potential analyses can be performed for different orbital shells and object types with the cascading potential change
over time allowing an interpretation of the past, of the current situation and for future scenarios.
We show that for the calculation of the cascading potential, there is a difference between an object repeatedly
meeting the same other object, and an object meeting many different other objects on its daily journey. Like in
epidemiology, the risk of spreading an infection in a population is much bigger if there is a bigger exchange between
many. (Note that this is different from the other perspective of the individual risk of getting infected [7][8].)
The resulting parameters and their variation over altitude and time can be used to identify trends, to assign priorities
and, therefore, to support decisions e.g., in Active Debris Removal (ADR) planning, but also for life-time extension
and Post-Mission Disposal (PMD) considerations [9]. All of these are important tasks on the way to a sustainable
use of outer space by our and future generations, which is the guiding vision to which we dedicate our efforts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Conjunctions in the RF Spectrum: Results from an RF Measurement Campaign of LEO Objects The Radio Frequencies (RF) Spectrum is, on the one hand, an important factor of successful satellite operations and satellite-based services, but on the other hand, it is a limited natural resource. The increased commercial activities, especially in LEO orbits have a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-39","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/39","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/39\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":214,"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/39\/revisions\/214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spaceanalyses.at\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}